Chickasha, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

131
FXUS64 KOUN 090532
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

 - Isolated strong storms are possible Wednesday afternoon.

 - Hot and humid conditions Thursday and Friday, with heat indices
near 105 degrees possible in some areas.

 - A weekend cold front will bring our next best chance for
widespread storms and a noticeable cooldown.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

While widespread activity is not anticipated, a few high-resolution
CAMs (notably the ARW and NAM 3km) are starting to suggest the
potential for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing
during the peak heating hours this afternoon. This activity could be
aided by any remnant outflow boundaries from Tuesday nights
convection. As far as location, moisture and some low level
convergence in western Oklahoma would make this the most likely area
to see storms.

For Wednesday night, most guidance shows diminishing convective
potential after sunset. However, the NAM 3km remains an outlier,
depicting another potential MCS diving south into the area
overnight. Confidence in this scenario is low, but not zero, and
will need to be monitored. For now, have maintained low-end PoPs
overnight, mainly across northern Oklahoma.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

The main story for the short term will be the building heat and
humidity. An upper-level ridge will strengthen over the region,
leading to widespread hot temperatures on Thursday. Highs are
expected to climb into the mid-to-upper 90s for most, with some
locations across western Oklahoma potentially reaching 100 degrees.
When combined with ample low-level moisture, this will result in
heat index values pushing 100 degrees across the board, with
readings near 105 degrees in southeast Oklahoma and parts of north-
central Oklahoma.

Models are starting to show better agreement about the potential for
an MCS diving toward northwest Oklahoma Thursday night, supported by
a strengthening low level jet. SPC has included us in a marginal
risk for this area.

Friday will remain hot and humid ahead of an approaching cold front.
Thunderstorm chances will increase late Friday into Friday night as
the front nears the area, though uncertainty remains on the exact
timing and coverage of storms.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

A lingering cold front will be the focus for showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday, though models diverge on its exact
position. Abundant cloud cover and cooler air behind the front will
lead to noticeably cooler temperatures across the region Saturday.

Forecast confidence decreases early next week as the upper-level
pattern becomes weak and ill-defined, making it challenging to time
any specific disturbances. Will maintain slight chance PoPs for
Monday and Tuesday pending better model agreement in subsequent
forecast cycles. Temperatures are expected to remain at or just
below seasonal normals.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Showers and storms continue southwest through western Oklahoma and
adjacent north Texas. This activity is expected to gradually wane
and move out. Wednesday afternoon will see low chances for storms,
but not high enough for mention at any particular TAF site. Winds
will remain light and southerly to southeasterly.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  93  72  95  75 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         98  72 100  75 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  96  74  98  76 /  10  10   0   0
Gage OK           96  70  99  72 /   0   0   0  30
Ponca City OK     93  72  95  74 /  10  10   0  10
Durant OK         92  73  95  76 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14